According to The Kobeissi Letter, recession odds in the US have become the base case scenario as indicated by a sharp increase in the 1-year recession probability priced by the S&P 500 earnings yield and the BBB-rated corporate bond spread (source: @KobeissiLetter, April 30, 2025). For traders, this signals heightened market volatility and potential downward pressure on both traditional equities and correlated crypto assets. Monitoring the S&P 500 earnings yield and corporate bond spreads can provide actionable signals for risk management and sector rotation strategies as an economic slowdown materializes.